In light of Tunisia’s recent presidential election, incumbent President Kais Saied is poised to secure a second term, even amidst significant political instability. Observers anticipate that Saied, who has held office since 2019, will emerge victorious, despite the incarceration of key opponents and recent constitutional changes that critics are branding as a coup.

As the polls closed, exit polling from the Sigma polling agency indicated that Saied was leading with an astonishing 89.2% of the vote, a figure later reported by state television. However, opponents are skeptical, arguing that these numbers do not accurately reflect the reality on the ground. Voter turnout was alarmingly low at just 27.7%, raising serious concerns about the legitimacy of the electoral process.

Once seen as a beacon of democratic hope following the Arab Spring in 2011, Tunisia’s political landscape has changed drastically under Saied’s leadership. Rights advocates and political analysts argue that he has systematically eroded the democratic achievements of the past decade, consolidating power by dissolving parliament and amending the constitution without public input.

Leading up to the election, there was a noticeable lack of campaign activities, with Saied’s posters dominating the streets. Many opposition leaders faced imprisonment or were outright barred from participating. Saied, who claims to be fighting a corrupt elite, is facing two challengers: his former ally Zouhair Maghzaoui and businessman Ayachi Zammel, who has recently been sentenced to prison.

Public sentiment before the election appeared largely apathetic. Young voters, like 22-year-old Mohamed, expressed disillusionment, stating they felt that voting was futile in light of a crumbling economy. On the other hand, some, like bank employee Wael, expressed a desire for change, even while acknowledging the grim political climate.

Tensions have escalated following the electoral commission’s disqualification of several prominent candidates, which has sparked protests among opposition and civil society groups. A new law approved by lawmakers loyal to Saied further diminishes the power of administrative courts over election disputes, raising serious concerns about the independence of Tunisia’s judiciary.

Saied’s inflammatory comments regarding migrants from sub-Saharan Africa have drawn international backlash, with the African Union denouncing his rhetoric as “hate speech.” This has led to a surge in attacks and discrimination against black immigrants.

Reports indicate that over 170 individuals are currently imprisoned for political reasons or for exercising their rights, including Rached Ghannouchi, the founder of the Ennahda party and a prominent critic of Saied’s regime.

While Saied’s expected victory looms, voter enthusiasm appears to be lacking, mainly due to ongoing economic hardships. The International Crisis Group has warned that many citizens are concerned that an extended mandate for Saied could exacerbate current socioeconomic crises rather than alleviate them.

As protests erupt against Saied’s administration, demonstrators have labeled him a “Pharaoh” manipulating laws to cling to power. As the election unfolds, Saied has called for a “massive turnout,” framing it as a step toward a new era of reconstruction, despite the numerous allegations of conspiracies against him.

As Tunisia stands at this pivotal crossroads, the outcomes of the election will likely have profound implications for the political landscape and the daily lives of the Tunisian people.