During our conversation, we delved into the changing dynamics of Chad’s foreign relations, particularly its strengthening ties with Russia under President Mahamat Déby. Since his election last May, Déby has skillfully navigated Chad’s historical alliance with France while simultaneously deepening connections with Moscow, a strategy that has raised concerns in both Paris and Washington.

Can you elaborate on Déby’s recent engagements with Russian leaders?

Certainly. A notable highlight was Déby’s visit to Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin this past January. Following that, in June, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov traveled to Chad’s capital, N’Djamena, to further diplomatic discussions. There are ongoing talks among some Chadian officials about forming a new military partnership; however, the primary focus has been on cultural and media exchanges, exemplified by the recent inauguration of an official Russian cultural center in N’Djamena.

Have there been any difficulties in this developing relationship?

Yes, there have been some challenges. For instance, just last week, Russian diplomats had to step in when a “sociologist” associated with the former Wagner Group was briefly detained in Chad during a visit. Nevertheless, the overall trajectory indicates a strengthening of ties between Chad and Moscow, which is particularly alarming for the U.S. and France, especially given France’s status as Chad’s former colonial power.

What are the broader implications for U.S. and French interests in the region?

The U.S. and France are growing increasingly concerned as they witness Russia’s expanding influence in West Africa, notably through cultural initiatives and social media efforts that promote anti-Western sentiments. Military regimes in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have already expelled Western forces, opting for Russian military support. If Chad were to follow suit, it would represent a significant setback for French interests, particularly considering France’s strategic military presence in N’Djamena and its operations throughout the region.

How is public opinion influencing Déby’s approach to Western forces?

There is a notable rise in anti-Western sentiment among the youth in Chad, mirroring sentiments found in France’s former colonies. Following the election season, Déby has indicated a willingness to welcome back U.S. forces, although this presence may be less extensive than before. Maintaining any military cooperation is vital for both France and the U.S., especially in light of the challenges they’ve faced in the Sahel region since 2021.

What strategic factors make Chad’s position vital in this geopolitical landscape?

Chad holds a crucial geographical position, bordering conflict-affected nations like Sudan and Libya, as well as the Central African Republic, which is dealing with internal turmoil. The situation has been further complicated by the presence of the Wagner Group, which, after the passing of its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin last year, has rebranded itself as Africa Corps and is now operating under tighter Kremlin oversight.

In light of these challenges, how is Déby managing his relationships with both Western countries and Russia?

Déby has adeptly positioned himself within this intricate landscape. He ascended to power during a military transition following his father’s death in battle, which has granted him significant influence as he navigates his dual relationships with Western nations and Russia. Despite facing tensions over his disputed electoral bid, he appears to recognize the importance of leveraging his international relations for his country’s benefit.

What insights can you share about the future of Chad’s foreign policy and its implications for the West?

While Paris and Washington may hope that Déby sees Moscow as a supportive ally rather than a replacement for Western partnerships, the changing geopolitical landscape suggests that close attention will be required to monitor how Chad balances these relationships while addressing its domestic challenges. Paul Melly, a consulting fellow at Chatham House, highlights the importance for both the U.S. and France to appreciate Chad’s strategic significance in this evolving context.