During an interview discussing demographic shifts in the Bay Area, particularly in San Francisco, it was revealed that the region experienced a significant population decline during the COVID-19 pandemic. Santa Clara County saw a loss of nearly 80,000 residents between 2020 and 2022, while San Francisco itself lost around 46,000 people. Although the area was already seeing a population decrease before the pandemic, the overall numbers remained stable due to new immigration. The pandemic, however, placed constraints on immigration as well. It wasn’t until 2023 that we began to see a rebound in population numbers.

When it comes to population statistics, many people turn to the U.S. Census Bureau, which focuses on overall population counts. However, the real insights can come from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), which tracks population movement effectively for tax purposes. IRS data shows that San Francisco residents still prefer to relocate to other parts of California, with San Mateo County taking the lead, followed by Los Angeles County, which ranks fourth. Interestingly, New York City’s Manhattan is the only exception, coming in eighth.

According to the San Francisco Chronicle, the city faced a mass exodus, similar to other major U.S. cities, due to the pandemic and the rise of remote work opportunities. In the 2020-21 period alone, the city lost 32,200 residents, a number that far surpassed the 18,000 who left between 2015 and 2019.

The trend slowed to 13,600 people moving out in the 2021-22 period. The Census Bureau’s statistics indicate that the years 2022-23 saw a beginning of population growth, though it still falls short of pre-pandemic levels. It’s worth noting that these figures do not include foreign immigration, which has traditionally been a significant contributor to San Francisco’s population growth, but decreased during the pandemic.

While it’s true that many native residents were relocating before 2020, the shift to remote work made this trend even more pronounced, with most moving to nearby Bay Area counties. A smaller number chose to head to Southern California or even New York on the East Coast.

Interestingly, IRS data highlights that not only high-salaried tech workers are leaving San Francisco; thousands of service industry employees have also moved away. Reasons for this exodus include health concerns, layoffs, and skyrocketing living costs. The uptick in population during the 2022-23 fiscal year can be attributed to a waning trend in remote work, with many companies now requiring employees to come into the office at least one or two days a week. Nonetheless, the total population has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels.