On October 20th, preliminary voting results indicated that the citizens of Moldova voted “no” in a referendum on joining the European Union. If these results are confirmed, it would represent a significant setback for pro-European President Maia Sandu, who is hoping for a strong showing in the simultaneous first round of presidential elections.

According to a report by the Central News Agency citing AFP, the two votes are seen as a critical test for the former Soviet republic under Sandu’s leadership as it pivots towards Europe. However, concerns about potential Russian interference loom large amidst the ongoing conflict in neighboring Ukraine.

Sandu, who rose to power in 2020 by defeating pro-Moscow incumbent Igor Dodon, has led the country to sever ties with Moscow and seek EU membership following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Regarding the EU membership referendum, approximately 70% of the votes have been counted, showing over 55% of citizens against joining, while 45% voted in favor. However, as the counting from the capital city, Chisinau, and overseas ballots continues, the outcome may still shift.

In the presidential election, early results indicate that Sandu holds a vote share of about 36%, suggesting she may face off against former prosecutor Alexander Stoianoglo, who has the backing of the pro-Russian Party of Socialists, in a potential runoff on November 3rd. Stoianoglo’s support is currently exceeding expectations at nearly 30%.

The referendum question posed whether to amend the constitution to pursue EU membership and other related goals, with a turnout of nearly 50%. Sandu’s camp believes this turnout is underestimated due to outdated voter registration lists. According to regulations, the referendum needs a turnout of at least 33% to be valid.

In contrast, the turnout for the presidential election exceeded 51%.

At 52 years old, Sandu is Moldova’s first female president and was previously a World Bank economist. Despite leading in pre-election polls, the predictions regarding the referendum had initially anticipated support for the constitutional amendment.

After casting her vote, Sandu remarked, “This vote will determine our destiny for many years to come.”