In a recent interview, we explored the implications of a new poll conducted for the San Francisco Chronicle, which indicates a significant surge in voter support for mayoral candidate Daniel Lurie. This shift suggests that Lurie has a strong chance of defeating the incumbent mayor, London Breed.
The poll, conducted on October 15 and 16, reveals that approximately 23% of potential voters have Lurie as their first choice for mayor, placing him nearly neck and neck with Breed, who garnered 24%. The support for other candidates is considerably lower, with Aaron Peskin receiving 18%, Mark Farrell at 14%, and Supervisor Daniele An key at just 5%. Republican candidate Ellen Lee Zhou trails with only 2%.
Moreover, when considering voters’ second, third, fourth, and fifth choices—thanks to San Francisco’s ranked-choice voting system—Lurie demonstrates an even stronger position, leading Breed 56% to 44% in the final tally. This indicates that his chances of winning are increasing as the race progresses.
Jonathan Brown, president of Sextant Strategies & Research, offered insights into the dynamics of the race: “Earlier polls showed a rise in Breed’s support, but as the election approaches, voters are becoming more focused on the potential developments for the city over the next four years. As a result, Breed’s momentum seems to have slowed, highlighting the effectiveness of Lurie’s and the other candidates’ campaign ads.”
The Chronicle points out that these rankings could still shift in the final weeks leading up to the election, as about 13% of voters remain undecided.
Interestingly, the poll analysis also suggests that if Farrell is eliminated in the ranked-choice voting process, much of his support would likely transfer to Lurie. Likewise, voters who back Peskin appear more inclined to list Lurie as their second choice, further boosting his likelihood of winning the mayoral race.
As for Breed, the Chronicle’s examination indicates that for her to have a viable path to victory, she may need a significant number of Peskin’s and Farrell’s voters to place her ahead of Lurie on their ballots.
Lurie’s campaign has made a remarkable financial impact, raising over $15 million, the highest amount ever collected by a San Francisco mayoral candidate. This figure includes around $8 million from Lurie himself, with the remainder coming from investors and tech moguls supporting his vision for reform in San Francisco.